Californians save on housing after leaving state; relocation often leads to increased homeownership, analysis finds
A California Policy Lab analysis finds households relocating out of California save an average $672 per month on housing and become 48% more likely to own a home within seven years, driven largely by the state’s severe affordability crisis.
Key takeaways
- Average savings: Households leaving California cut monthly housing costs by about $672, from $2,376 to $1,705 on average, according to the Fox Business and Realtor.com coverage of the California Policy Lab analysis.
- Renter impact: Renters who leave pay roughly 30% less in rent — about a $631 monthly reduction.
- Home prices and ownership: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods are about $396,000 (≈48%) lower; homeownership rises to 60% in destination neighborhoods versus 53% in the California neighborhoods they left.
- Long-term effects: After seven years, departing Californians are 11 percentage points more likely to own a home (a 48% increase), compared with a 6-point (27%) gain among people who moved into California.
Priced out: The data behind the trend
The California Policy Lab (CPL) tracked the same households from 2016 through 2025 in a report titled “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis.” The study compares full monthly housing costs — mortgage or rent payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance — not just headline rent figures. That comprehensive measure shows many movers leave substantially lower housing bills behind.
On average, households exiting California saw monthly housing costs fall from $2,376 to $1,705. Renters recorded the largest percentage decline: rents dropped by roughly 30%, saving about $631 per month for the average relocating renter. Homeowners also benefited; median home prices in destination neighborhoods were roughly $396,000 lower — about 48% cheaper — making ownership more attainable outside California.
Who moves where
Moves out of California were mostly regional. From 2016 to 2025, Nevada saw the largest net inflow of former Californians (about 81 per 10,000 Californians annually). Idaho, Oregon and Arizona followed with net inflows of approximately 64, 37 and 36 per 10,000, respectively. Texas, Tennessee and Florida recorded smaller net gains (roughly 11, 13, and 4 per 10,000).
A local example: Sacramento County lost roughly 71,100 residents from 2016 to 2025 (269,600 left while 198,500 moved in), illustrating the scale of outward movement in some regions highlighted in CPL discussions and the video discussion.
Moves within and into California look different
Not all moves improve affordability. Households moving within California saw a slight increase in monthly housing costs (from $2,263 to $2,277). New arrivals to California faced larger jumps: average housing costs rose from $1,754 where they previously lived to $2,418 after moving into California — underlining how costly California remains versus many other states.
Longer-term gains: increased homeownership
CPL followed households for up to seven years. The analysis finds departing Californians were 48% more likely to own a home after seven years than they had been while in California — an 11 percentage-point rise. By contrast, those who moved to California were 27% more likely to own after seven years (about a 6-point rise). These differences suggest leaving the state often accelerates the path to ownership.
Why families leave: costs beyond housing
The report highlights that California’s higher everyday costs compound housing pressures: groceries are roughly 11% more expensive, gasoline about 40% higher, and utilities around 61% above national averages. Even when incomes dip slightly after relocation, the combined reductions in housing and living costs commonly produce net financial gains for households.
Expert commentary and policy ideas
CPL Executive Director Evan White emphasized that the near-$400,000 drop in median home prices in destination neighborhoods is a central motivator for families choosing more affordable locations. Housing advocates recommend increased production via new construction methods, lower fees, streamlined approvals and bipartisan supply-boosting bills to slow outward migration and expand opportunities for those who remain.
“The price gap makes homeownership attainable in many destination communities,” — Evan White, California Policy Lab (as referenced in media coverage).
Implications for the Inland Empire
Economic impacts: The Inland Empire is at a crossroads. Some Californians priced out of coastal markets choose the region, but CPL data suggest many leave farther afield — to Nevada, Idaho, Arizona or Oregon. Continued outflows could reduce local spending, shrink labor pools, and lower tax revenue.
Housing and homeownership: Departing residents often find clearer paths to ownership. The Inland Empire may act as a stepping-stone, but increased demand from out-of-state newcomers could push prices and rents higher without policies to increase supply.
Labor and business effects: Employers may face shifting workforce availability. If workers leave, filling roles — especially lower-wage positions — could become difficult; if the region attracts newcomers, businesses may gain customers and hires. Local planning and workforce development will shape outcomes.
Social and community changes: Population shifts can alter school enrollments, service demand and neighborhood makeup. Persistent outflow risks straining municipal budgets that depend on property and sales taxes, while inflows can reshape local cultural dynamics.
Policy choices: The CPL findings stress that addressing affordability matters: increase housing production at all levels, remove construction barriers, invest in transit and jobs, and consider targeted programs to help renters become homeowners while protecting vulnerable residents from displacement.
Practical effects for residents
For Inland Empire families weighing a move: leaving California frequently lowers housing bills and increases chances of homeownership within several years. Staying in or moving within California often yields higher or unchanged housing costs. Decisions should weigh job prospects, family ties and long-term affordability.
Sources and further reading
- California Policy Lab analysis (report: Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis) as reported by Fox Business and Realtor.com.
- Video discussion and data points from California Policy Lab and experts: YouTube.
The CPL analysis indicates the California housing exodus is more than a change of address: for many households it is a deliberate financial strategy that produces measurable savings and improved access to homeownership. Policymakers in the Inland Empire and statewide face growing pressure to tackle affordability if they hope to retain residents and maintain broad access to homeownership.
