Trump calls China’s soybean cuts an “economically hostile act,” threatens cooking oil ban in widening US-China trade fight
President Donald Trump accused China of an “economically hostile act” after Beijing halted purchases of U.S. soybeans, threatening retaliation including a potential ban on Chinese cooking oil and other trade measures as U.S. farmers face mounting financial strain.
- China paused major soybean purchases, shifting buys to Brazil and Argentina and squeezing U.S. growers (Fox Business; Axios).
- Trump threatened trade retaliation, including stopping imports of cooking oil and even a possible 100% tariff on China, heightening trade tensions (Fox Business).
- Farm groups urge quick trade aid to bridge harvest cash-flow gaps as prices fall; long-term market access loss could worsen if buyers shift to South America (Axios).
Trump’s accusations and threats
President Trump posted on Truth Social that “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.” He added the administration is “considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.”
“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”
Those comments came with warnings of tougher steps, including a potential 100% tariff on China, framing this as part of broader, escalating US-China trade tensions. (Source: Fox Business; Axios.)
Impact on American soybean farmers
Immediate pressure: China halted purchases of U.S. soybeans in spring 2025 and increased buys from Brazil and Argentina, reducing demand for U.S. crops and pushing prices down.
China has been the world’s largest importer of soybeans and — over the last five marketing years — accounted for roughly 61% of global traded soybean supplies, so any reduction in Chinese buying is a major shock to U.S. growers. Before the 2018 trade war, the U.S. exported about 28% of its soybean crop to China on average; that share has swung widely since then. (Source: Fox Business.)
On-the-ground example: Farmers like Brad Arnold, a multigenerational soybean grower in southwestern Missouri, say China’s move “has huge impacts on our business and our bottom line,” illustrating how cuts in market access quickly ripple through family operations. (Source: Fox Business.)
Economic concerns and calls for trade aid
With harvest underway in many areas, cash-flow timing is critical. Scott Gerlt, chief economist for the American Soybean Association, warned farmers need trade aid soon to bridge the cash-flow gap created by harvest timing and falling prices.
Gerlt emphasized that while short-term aid can keep producers afloat, losing market access now risks sending a long-term signal that buyers should expand sourcing in South America: “Having dependable trading partners is better in the long run. Trade aid can get farmers through short-term, help keep them in business and get to the next year. But the problem is, if we’re not in the markets now, that’s just a further signal to South America to keep expanding.” Officials have discussed bailout plans, but at the time of reporting, payments had not materialized. (Source: Fox Business; Axios.)
China’s strategic moves in global soybean markets
Analysts note China’s pivot to Brazil and Argentina appears strategic, not accidental. Trump suggested Beijing may be trying to draw a wedge between the U.S. and Argentina by increasing purchases after Buenos Aires dropped an export tax, purchases that coincided with U.S. aid pledges to Argentina. “I would say so. China likes to draw wedges,” he said when asked whether Beijing sought to split ties. (Source: Axios; Fox Business.)
If buyers permanently shift supply chains to South America, U.S. farmers could face sustained loss of market share, and rebuilding those trade relationships can take years.
Cooking oil trade and the threatened retaliation
What the cooking oil threat targets: Much of U.S.-China cooking oil trade is used cooking oil (UCO) imported for biofuel production, not food-grade oil for grocery shelves. Domestic increases in soybean oil production have largely fed biofuel demand rather than direct food markets. (Source: Axios.)
USDA data show the largest food-grade cooking oil imports come from Canada, Indonesia and the EU — not China — so banning Chinese cooking oil might have limited direct impact on supermarket supplies but could hit biofuel feedstocks and industrial flows.
Broader trade-war context and risks
This escalation comes as both countries have tightened port controls and increased fees. Prices are already rising at grocery stores, and further retaliatory measures could push food and fuel costs higher. Threats of 100% tariffs and other restrictions raise the risk of a broader US-China trade war that affects consumer markets and manufacturing chains. (Source: Axios.)
Implications for the Inland Empire, California
Economic impact
- Agriculture links: The Inland Empire is not a major soybean region, but soybean price shocks can raise feed and food costs, affecting local dairies, poultry producers and meat processors that rely on soybean meal and oil. (Source: Fox Business.)
- Logistics and trade flows: As a Southern California logistics hub, shipping slowdowns or new tariffs could ripple through warehouses, trucking firms and ports that employ thousands locally. (Source: Axios.)
Political consequences
- Local officials and voters may press representatives for trade relief and aid for affected farmers and supply-chain workers; trade policy could become a campaign issue.
Social effects
- Higher grocery and fuel prices would hit lower-income households hardest; food banks and community groups could see rising demand.
Practical applications for residents
- Consumers should expect possible price increases for cooking oil and meat products if trade frictions deepen.
- Logistics and freight businesses should prepare for shifting cargo patterns, customs changes, and potential delays at West Coast ports.
- Local policymakers can push for targeted aid, workforce support, and supply-chain diversification strategies.
Reporting and sourcing
This article draws on reporting of the president’s statements and industry analysis. Key sources: Fox Business and Axios. The reporting includes Trump’s Truth Social comments, farm-group warnings about the need for trade aid, market shifts toward Brazil and Argentina, and details on cooking oil trade flows tied to biofuels.
Preserved URLs: Fox Business; Axios.
